Drama as Jonathan collects Tambuwal’s speech

There was a mild drama in the House of Representatives yesterday during the 2013 budget presentation by President Goodluck Jonathan.

Shortly after the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Aminu Waziri Tambuwal, finished delivering vote of thanks, Jonathan walked up to Tambuwal and personally collected the speech.

In the speech, Tambuwal had accused Jonathan of refusing to implement various resolutions of the National Assembly which he described as disrespect to rule of law.

Apparently touched by the speech, Jonathan went over and demanded for the speech.

At first, Tambuwal declined to hand it over, promising that he will send it later but the President insisted on going with a copy. He then collected it and handed it over to one of his aides.

Why Jonathan is persecuting Henry Okah

Exactly two years after what came to be known as the Independence Day bombing, the trial of the alleged mastermind, Henry Emomotimi Okah, finally began. The trial is taking place, not in Nigeria, but in South Africa where the government said she was prosecuting Okah because of its obligation to the international community. The Nigerian government did not ask for Okah’s extradition even though the alleged crimes were committed in Nigeria.

Ironically, in the immediate aftermath of the bombing, President Goodluck Jonathan exonerated the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta; and by implication, exonerated Okah, who is alleged to be the leader of one of the four factions of the justice-seeking group. For several weeks, many people wondered why the President declared the group blameless. The fact is that the President couldn’t have made such an audacious pronouncement without assurances from the intelligence and security agencies.

Recent events have made many to wonder if, at the time of the incident, the President was in the dark, told the truth, fudged the truth; or outright lied to the nation and to the global public about whom/what organisation was responsible for the atrocity. Two interrelated questions are now at the fore: First, what informed the President’s thinking at the time he absolved MEND; and second, what caused him to change his mind to the point where he now believes MEND is wholly culpable for the dastardly crime?

Two weeks into the trial, these are what the general public knows: (1) The presiding judge, Justice Neels Claassen, has indicated that the trial may last a year or more; (2) the defense lawyer, Tsitesi Majang, and the prosecuting attorney, Phindi Louw, have indicated that they may jointly call upward of 200 witnesses to testify for and/or against the defendant; and (3) among the early government witnesses are Godsday Orubebe, the Minister of Niger Delta Affairs, who happens to be a very good friend to both President Jonathan and Okah.

The aforelisted, along with what President Jonathan said in the immediate aftermath of the bombings, are what the general public knows. What the public may not know are the cloak and dagger politics of the Ijaw people vis-à-vis the Jonathan Presidency; the cash cow that is the Presidential Amnesty Programme and various other programmes supposedly designed to ameliorate the insidious and injurious conditions of the region and its people; and the sordid and horrid plans by powerful and influential individuals in the region that are designed to restart the Niger Delta conflict.

Today, Okah may be the most vilified individual that is associated with the crisis; but really, nothing can be farther from the gospel truth: he is, to many, one of the few heroes from the Niger Delta. To know what he stands for is to know that not all justice-seekers in and around the Niger Delta are destitute and deficient in terms of ideas, foresight, and love for people and for country. He is what Americans call “the genuine article” There is nothing phony or superficial about him.

Okah does not play or believe in ethnic and religious politics. And in fact, secessionist ideas repulse him. For many years, and long before the Niger Delta conflict became a part of our national consciousness and conversation, he was engaged in legitimate enterprises.When his people beckoned and called for his resources, he obliged. But when certain elements lost sight of important and noble goals, he balked. By this I mean that once he realised that the elite in the region had sinister agenda, he pulled back. This was the beginning of his tribulations!

And while it may be true that he had previously run afoul of Nigeria’s oil and land laws — laws that are sometimes sordid and inhumane — he reconciled with President Umaru Yar’Adua’s government (before and after the 2009 Presidential Amnesty for Niger Delta militants). During this period, he visited the President in the Presidential Villa and also exchanged entreaties. Okah was never a hooligan; he was never a criminal; and was never a terrorist. He only advanced just and noble causes.

During political struggles, terrible things do happen: laws are sometimes broken, and toes stepped on. Be it in South Africa, Palestine, Zimbabwe, or Algeria — or during the struggle for Independence in the Americas, justice-seekers made mistakes. Okah may have made mistakes; but he was not and was never a criminal. He was not the hand or the voice behind the October 1, 2010 bombing in Abuja. And neither was he the one who organised and orchestrated the March 15, 2010 car bombing in Warri. This is an innocent man.

Why would a man who faithfully accepted President Yar’Adua’s amnesty offer, and who later became friends with the said President, act against his and his people’s interest? He didn’t! What type of a government, and what manner of a President, acquiesces to the jailing of its citizens in faraway lands without calling and insisting on fair and timely justice? The answer to these questions is simple: President Jonathan, along with a section of the elite and two factions of MEND, simply turned against an innocent and patriotic man.

What many do not know is that MEND does not have a command structure. It was not a formal organisation with formal membership. There were four obvious factions. What unified them was success at their mission; and every such success had MEND’s name attached to it. But the gulf between the known groups was wide and unbridgeable. The first was basically a criminal enterprise; and the second group comprised commercial militants: those who saw militancy as a way of making quick bucks and nothing else. The third group was also interested in making money, but only to the extent that 50 or more per cent of whatever money that was amassed was to be used for future conflicts and or secessionist agenda. The fourth are the purists. Who are the purists?

In the concluding chapter,I will tell you who the purists are. In addition, I shall reveal what was offered, and was demanded of Okah, and why he refused. For refusing to be used and used against the Federal Republic, he attracted the rage and the fury of Jonathan’s camp. Commercial militants also turned against him. As a result, Okah finds himself sitting and wasting away in a South African jail. Is this justice

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President Goodluck Jonathan Presents 2013 Budget To The National Assembly

President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan's 2013 Budget Speech Of “Fiscal Consolidation with Inclusive Growth” Before A Joint Session of the National Assembly, Abuja On Wednesday, 10th October 2012.



PROTOCOL

1. It is my pleasure and honour to present the 2013 Federal Budget Proposal before this esteemed Joint Session of the National Assembly. I am particularly delighted to present this Proposal to you earlier in the year, and soon after the commemoration of our national independence, to signal our commitment to evolving a new Nigeria. This Proposal is the product of extensive consultations with key stakeholders and would further translate the Government’s development plans into concrete actions.

2. When I presented the 2012 Budget, you will recall, I emphasized the fact that it would be “a stepping-stone to the transformation of our economy and country in our walk to economic freedom ...”. I am glad to report that we have made progress in this regard. Today, in the face of critical resource constraints, the defining moment of our work is in actualizing our promises to Nigerians. We need to create a structured economy where everybody plays by the same rules, and contributes their fair bit. That is the Nigeria our heroes past craved for; that is the Nigeria we believe in; and that is the Nigeria we are building together.

GLOBAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS
3. As we build this nation and walk the path of development, we must be mindful of the realities of our circumstances and those of the changing global economy. This Budget Proposal was therefore designed against the backdrop of global economic uncertainty. By the end of the second quarter of this year, the global economy was recovering but at a very slow pace. Growth in a number of major emerging market economies, has been lower than forecast. Overall, global growth is projected at 3.3% in 2012 and 3.6% in 2013.

4. The uncertainty surrounding the global economy, which could have adverse effects on commodity prices, highlights the downside risks for our economy. The oil market is well known for its volatility. We recall the 2008 experience at the height of the global economic downturn when oil prices fell almost overnight from $147 per barrel to $38 per barrel. This threat of oil price volatility remains constant and underscores the need to rely on a robust and prudent methodology to estimate the benchmark price.

5. The global economic slowdown can also have far-reaching implications for the demand for our export commodities, given that the Euro zone and the USA account for over 50% of the nation’s crude oil exports. These global developments are also being transmitted to our economy through a dampening effect on foreign capital inflows and remittances by Diaspora Nigerians. Fellow Nigerians, these are uncertain times in the world economy, and my Administration is taking necessary steps to mitigate possible adverse effects of the global economic slowdown on Nigeria. I assure you that we are going to build up the necessary savings to protect the economy against a possible global recession or a slow recovery.


DEVELOPMENTS IN THE DOMESTIC ENVIRONMENT
6. In spite of the foregoing, our economy has done relatively well. Over the past nine months, through a number of initiatives, we have created new jobs directly and supported many young entrepreneurs running SMEs to create jobs. Nigeria is looking to become more self-reliant again in food security, and we are increasing local content in our manufacturing processes and the oil and gas sector.






7. As at the end of the second quarter, the economy recorded an impressive growth of 6.28% compared to 5.4% forecast for sub-Saharan Africa. It is gratifying to note that the non-oil sector remains the main driver of growth. There are also improvements in other macroeconomic indicators. Inflation has dropped from 12.9% in June 2012 to 11.7% in August 2012, and our goal is to reduce it further. Our foreign reserves now stand at US$41.6 billion – the highest it has been in over 2 years. We intend to continue with our programme of fiscal discipline and prudent monetary policy in order to continue to improve our country’s macroeconomic environment.

8. Furthermore, in addition to being upgraded last year by Fitch and S&P rating agencies, Nigeria has now been included in the JP Morgan Emerging Markets Bond Index, signifying increasing investor confidence in our economy. In addition, the World Economic Forum has upgraded our ranking from 127 to 115 in the global competitiveness index.

9. Here in Nigeria, we do not join the debate on fiscal consolidation versus growth because we believe in the need to do both; hence, we are continuing our focus of fiscal consolidation with inclusive growth. The fiscal consolidation policy has helped to strengthen our finances with a programmed budget deficit of about 2.85% of GDP in 2012, now projected to drop to 2.17% in 2013. Moreover, the share of capital expenditure in the total budget is increasing as we gradually reduce recurrent expenditures and also develop non-oil revenue sources.






REVIEW OF THE 2012 BUDGET IMPLEMENTATION
10. Fellow Compatriots, the 2012 Budget was focused on achieving Fiscal Consolidation with Inclusive Growth using the budget balance as a fiscal anchor. In that respect, while investing in key priorities, the budget also ensured that the deficit followed a downward trend over the medium term. This is being done through a more aggressive revenue collection drive and prudent management of available resources.

11. On the expenditure side, the implementation of the 2012 Budget is on track, having commenced effectively in April when it became law. We have so far released N711.6 billion to MDAs for the implementation of their capital budgets while further releases are to follow shortly for the fourth quarter. The continued implementation of the 2011 capital budget in the first quarter of 2012, clearly affected the implementation of the 2012 Budget.

12. I have taken a personal interest in the budget implementation since May by chairing weekly sessions with Ministers and Heads of parastatals on their progress in this regard. We are determined to use the instrument of the budget to improve the welfare of Nigerians. You would recall my assurance to Nigerians that subsequent budgets will be presented earlier to the National Assembly. It is in this spirit that I lay this Proposal before this Assembly today, to give sufficient time for deliberation on the Proposal and approval of the budget, and to enable us commence implementation from January 1st 2013.








13. Let me stress that Government remains focused on the tangible outcomes from the implementation of the Appropriation Acts, not just the amounts spent. In this respect, I have signed Performance Agreement Contracts with my Ministers with a view to ensuring delivery of projects and programmes in their respective budgets. The Ministers in turn, are signing similar agreements with their Permanent Secretaries, Heads of parastatals and Directors to cascade down the need for responsibility and accountability. Key government officials with responsibility for implementing different aspects of the budget will be appraised based on these performance agreements. My goal is to ensure optimal implementation of our annual budgets.

14. Government is also determined to reduce the cost of governance. We are reviewing the recommendations aimed at rationalizing Agencies of the Federal Government with overlapping functions. This has been taken into account in the preparation of the 2013 Budget, and we expect some modest cost savings from this exercise in the course of the 2013 fiscal year. However, more significant progress will be made in 2014, as we work with the Legislature to harmonise those Agencies that have enabling laws, but which also have duplicative mandates.


Subsidy Reinvestments and Empowerment Programme (SURE-P)
15. You will recall that we had assured Nigerians that the proceeds of the partial withdrawal of petroleum subsidies will be applied to implementing the Subsidy Reinvestment Programme (SURE-P). The implementation of this programme is continuing over the medium-term.

16. In the 2012 fiscal year, we had voted N180 billion for the implementation of social safety net programmes, road and rail infrastructure projects. So far, N36.5 billion of this amount has been utilized to support maternal and child health programmes as well as mass transit, roads and rail projects and job creation through the Community Services and Public Works programme. The SURE-P Board under the able chairmanship of Dr. Christopher Kolade is presently working hard to ensure the successful oversight of the implementation of this programme. We are grateful to them for their hard work and patriotism.


KEY ACHIEVEMENTS IN THE 2012 FISCAL YEAR
17. In the 2012 Budget, Government outlined some projects and programmes that were to be implemented in key sectors of the economy in order to improve the livelihood of Nigerians. We have numerous activities in various sectors such as: Power, Health, Agriculture, Education, Housing, Transport, Aviation, etc. Let me highlight a few of these sectors.


Power
18. The Power Sector Reform is on course. Our efforts have begun to pay off as we have improved power supply to various parts of the country. Our gas-to-power and other initiatives are making this possible, but I acknowledge the fact that we still have a long way to go. As you may be aware, the ongoing privatisation of the generation and distribution companies has reached an advanced stage. In some cases, Preferred Bidders have already emerged.  When completed, the programme will bring into the sector significant private investment, along with the requisite power output.

19. We have accomplished a number of goals in the Power sector reform programme in line with the Roadmap, including:
a. Completion of new units at our thermal power stations, to increase generation;
b. Rehabilitation of existing power infrastructure, which has yielded up to 1,000 mega watts of additional electricity;
c. Fast-Tracking 3 NIPP projects, which will bring an additional 1,055 mega watts by the end of the year; and
d. Facilitating a power and gas financing package, which includes Government Guarantees, proposed Infrastructure Bonds of about $1billion, and $150 million of external funding from the African Development Bank to support continued gas supply and the liberalization of the power sector.


Agriculture
20. My Administration has instituted key policy reforms to establish staple crop processing zones aimed at attracting the private sector into areas of high production, reducing post-harvest losses, and adding value to locally produced commodities. So far we have succeeded in attracting $7.8 billion investment commitments to the agricultural sector.  These investments and the value chain approach being used to transform the sector have the capacity to create 3.5 million additional jobs in the medium term by 2015.

• You will recall that Government provided incentives to support cassava value chains, including zero duty on machinery and equipment to process high quality cassava flour. Cassava bread is increasingly commercially available with 20% cassava flour content. In addition, a total of one million metric tonnes of dried cassava chips, are being exported to China this year.

• Achieving self-sufficiency in rice production in 2015 remains our target. In response to our new fiscal measures, 13 new private sector rice mills with a capacity of about 240,000 metric tonnes have been established. These mills buy and process local paddy and create employment for Nigerians.


Housing
21. Fellow Nigerians, the provision of affordable housing is one of the Administration’s strategic imperatives for guaranteeing our citizens’ productivity and well-being. We are creating an enabling environment for the private sector to produce much needed housing, whilst creating jobs in the process. To facilitate this, I will be holding a presidential retreat on Housing in early November, to discuss policy and modalities for dealing with land titling issues, developing an affordable mortgage finance system and reducing the high cost of housing construction.

22. In the meantime, under various social housing programmes, close to 2,000 housing units have been completed, while over 24,000 housing units are at various stages of completion. This is outside housing being constructed for the use of the Armed Forces and Paramilitary services. The Federal Government has entered into Partnership Agreements with several States for the provision of 6,000 housing units. Another 600 housing units have already been completed under the direct construction scheme of the Federal Housing Authority in these States. Gradually, we are ensuring that more Nigerians enjoy the benefits of having their own homes.





 Transport
23. You are already familiar with the improvement in the functioning of our ports, the details of which I provided in my 52nd Independence Anniversary Speech. With regard to Rail transport, in our continuing effort to boost infrastructure development in the country, work is ongoing to rehabilitate the rail system across the country.  These include the Lagos-Kano line as well as the Port Harcourt-Maiduguri line. Our people have started enjoying rail service again.

24. Our railway modernisation programme is progressing with the Abuja-Kaduna line now at 46% completion, while work on the Lagos-Ibadan line is to commence soon. We also expect to complete the Itakpe-Ajaokuta-Warri line in 2013. In the same vein, we are fast-tracking the implementation of the mass transit Abuja Light Rail system. When completed, it will improve transportation for all residents in the FCT, especially workers living in the satellite towns.

25. Inland Waterways: Our inland waterways programme is on track to boost commerce in the surrounding communities, and I had the pleasure of commissioning the Onitsha Inland Port on 30th August 2012.

Aviation
26. We are working hard to improve the regulatory regime and safety of the Aviation sector and will continue to look for ways to support its development. This Administration identifies this sector as a key part of the Transformation Agenda. As such, we have embarked on a comprehensive programme to transform our airports to world-class standards and improve air travel safety standards across the country.
27. For instance, the remodelling of airport terminals and the upgrading of airport runways are presently at advanced stages of implementation across virtually all our airports. In addition, we have just concluded arrangements to commence the construction of five brand new terminals in Kano, Port Harcourt, Lagos, Abuja and Enugu, and six perishable cargo terminals, early next year. In line with international best practice, these new terminals will be private sector-managed.

28. Roads: We know that Nigerians are disturbed about the state of our major highways. We are addressing this issue frontally. With the rains receding, the Ministry of Works will intensify the construction and rehabilitation of major roads in the country, for example, the dualization of the Abuja-Lokoja road, the Benin-Ore-Shagamu road, and the Kano-Maiduguri road. Also, the Enugu-Port-Harcourt road rehabilitation has been awarded to four contractors in order to fast-track its completion. It is gratifying to note that resources from the Petroleum Subsidy Reinvestment Programme are being used to supplement the regular budget for these projects.


The Petroleum Sector
29. The petroleum sector continues to play a crucial role in our economy, even as we seek diversification. In this regard, we are taking steps to modernise the sector. A robust Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB) has been delivered as promised to the National Assembly for consideration. When passed into law, the Bill will provide the new legal framework that will govern Nigeria’s Oil and Gas industry.  This Bill, which encompasses major reforms, will encourage additional investments in the sector, create accountability and transparency, and ensure that the management of our petroleum sector is commercially driven.

30. Our gas to power initiatives are moving firmly ahead, with the 12-month gas supply emergency plan already yielding more than the targeted volumes of gas for power generation.

31. With respect to the Petroleum Subsidy Programme, Government is succeeding in substantially cleaning up the management of the petroleum subsidy regime. We are tightening up the payment regime, to weed out corruption while working hard to recover monies fraudulently obtained from the subsidy regime. The EFCC is prosecuting those found wanting and the efforts to crack down on corruption in this sector will continue.

32. On Frontier Exploration, the Government’s drive to build up the nation’s oil reserves through exploration of new frontiers for oil and gas production is beginning to yield results with news of the discovery of crude oil in some inland sedimentary basins in the country. These include the Chad Basin, Benue Trough, Yola Basin and Anambra Basin amongst others. We are determined to further develop on these findings and expand the scope of such explorations. To support this, we have raised the provision for frontier exploration services from N12 billion in 2012 to N16 billion in 2013.



Job Creation
33. Fellow Compatriots, in spite of the economic growth noted earlier, it is clear that as a nation, we still face economic disparities across the country. This constitutes an obstacle to sustainable development as it limits improvement in living standards, output and social cohesion which are key factors for achieving inclusive growth. Our challenge therefore, transcends how to achieve growth. Our objective is to achieve inclusive growth by identifying and developing job creation opportunities. We have mentioned the 3.5 million jobs we aim to create in agriculture and more jobs in the housing and construction sectors, solid minerals sector, aviation and the creative industry.


34. In my Independence Day Speech, I spoke of the 80,000-110,000 jobs we are supporting young entrepreneurs to create through the YouWin programme. We have received numerous testimonies from young men and women who have been able to expand their businesses through the programme. We have just launched a second round of the competition targeting only women entrepreneurs. Across the country, our youth are developing new ideas and enterprises, and we must support them.

35. I launched the Community Service, Women and Youth Empowerment Programme (CSWYEP) under the SURE-P in February 2012. This is now working in pilot phase in 14 states, and to be replicated in other states in 2 weeks. We also have the Graduate Internship Programme, in which participating private companies provide one-year internships to 50,000 graduates, paid by the Federal Government. So far, 700 firms, and 20,000 young graduates have applied to participate in this scheme.


36. Fellow Nigerians, even as we review our achievements in 2012, we are also conscious of the unprecedented floods, which have ravaged many parts of our country, displacing tens of thousands of fellow Nigerians, and causing massive destruction of property, farmlands, and infrastructure across the country. My heartfelt sympathy goes to the affected families and communities.

37. Yesterday, I made a broadcast on the Federal Government’s actions to deal with the situation. I authorized the disbursement of N17.6 billion to States and MDAs to help bring succour to our fellow citizens affected by the floods. This will complement ongoing efforts by Federal and State agencies, and private initiatives.

38. A Presidential Technical Committee to properly assess the extent of the impact, and propose a rehabilitation strategy, has submitted an Interim Report and is continuing to visit all the affected communities. I have also set up a National Committee on Flood Relief and Rehabilitation to assist the Federal Government to raise funds to mitigate the pains and ensure effective post-impact rehabilitation of victims.

39. I have also directed that the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development put in place a flood recovery food production plan. This will include the provision of early maturing varieties of maize, which mature in 60 days, to several flood affected areas.  In addition, flood-tolerant rice varieties are being procured for flooded rice growing areas. We will also accelerate dry season production of major food crops.

Security
40. Fellow Compatriots, we are conscious of the fact that without security, no meaningful development can take place in our land; and our collective efforts at building the nation would only amount to little. This is why we channelled a great deal of resources to security in the 2012 Budget. We remain conscious of the impact of security challenges facing the country and are determined to bring the situation under control.

41. I commiserate with all our citizens who lost loved ones in the recent Mubi killings and all the other acts of senseless destruction of lives and properties in the country. We have already made arrests in the Mubi case, and I want to assure Nigerians that all the culprits will be made to face the full weight of the law. I want to thank our brave men and women of the security services for their commitment. I also want to acknowledge and thank the various state Governors for their cooperation and untiring effort to ensure peace in their domains. The unity of Nigeria is not negotiable




THEME OF THE 2013 BUDGET
Theme
42. Distinguished Ladies and Gentlemen, you will recall that in furtherance of my Administration’s efforts to transform our economy, the 2012 Budget was established on four main pillars - Macroeconomic stability; Structural reforms; Governance & institutions; and Investing in priority sectors. The 2013 Budget promotes continuity of these pillars and is designed with the theme: fiscal consolidation with inclusive growth. We will remain prudent with our fiscal resources but also ensure that the Nigerian economy keeps growing and creating jobs. To this end, the government will continue with the medium-term theme and interventions that are consistent with the objectives of the Transformation Agenda.

Macroeconomic Stability
43. One key plank upon which our economic transformation is based is the achievement of macroeconomic stability. My Administration has made significant progress in putting the finances of the nation on a sound footing and laying the foundation for rapid and sustainable growth. We will stay focused on maintaining macroeconomic stability in Nigeria.

Budget Structure
44. Now let me turn to the structure of the 2013 Budget. In recent years, recurrent expenditure has tended to crowd out capital expenditure in the national budget. Over the 2013-2015 medium-term, my Administration will continue to implement measures aimed at correcting this imbalance in the budget structure in a viable and sustainable manner.

45. In the 2012 Budget speech, I noted that Government was going to focus on cutting recurrent expenditure to sustainable levels through reduction of waste, corruption and duplication in the functions of government agencies. In this respect, the biometric verification of employees is being extended to all agencies of Government, while the process for rationalizing public agencies and reducing duplication of mandates among different government agencies has begun, following the Report of the Oronsaye Committee.

46. I am therefore pleased to announce that the share of recurrent spending in aggregate expenditure is set to further reduce from 71.47% in 2012 to 68.7% in the 2013 Budget, while capital expenditure as a share of aggregate spending is set to increase from 28.53% in 2012 to 31.3% in 2013.


Public Debt Management

47. Government will continue to exercise fiscal prudence and limit its borrowing requirements in compliance with the Fiscal Responsibility Act, 2007. Consequently, we have developed a responsible domestic debt management strategy that, for the first time, seeks to start paying off our domestic debt rather than rolling it over. In this respect, a sinking fund of N100 billion is being established in the 2013 fiscal year to be used for repaying Government’s maturing debt obligations and to curb the rising domestic debt profile. We have further reduced our annual domestic borrowing from N852 billion in 2011, N744 billion in 2012, and to N727 billion in 2013.




THE 2013 BUDGET
48. The 2013 Budget is underpinned by the following parameters which reflect Government’s prudent economic policies in an uncertain global economic environment:

• Oil production of 2.53 million barrels per day, up from 2.48 million barrels per day for 2012.
• Benchmark oil price of US$75/barrel, a modest increase from the US$72/barrel approved in the 2012 Budget. This benchmark price is based on a well established econometric methodology of estimating oil price moving averages.
• Projected GDP growth rate which is now estimated at 6.5% compared to 6.85% in the Fiscal Strategy Paper. The revision is underpinned by the fact that the severe floods experienced over large parts of the country are expected to impact on economic activity in 2013, especially agriculture. However, the growth prospects may improve with the plan to boost dry season farming.



Revenue

49. Based on these assumptions, the gross federally collectible revenue is projected at N10.84 trillion, of which the total revenue available for the Federal Government’s Budget is forecast at N3.89 trillion, representing an increase of about 9% over the estimate for 2012. Non-oil revenue is projected to continue to grow in 2013 as the ongoing reforms in our revenue collecting agencies, and the implementation of initiatives to further develop the non-oil sector continue to yield results.





Expenditure Proposals
50. An aggregate expenditure of N4.92 trillion is proposed for the main budget of the 2013 fiscal year, representing a modest increase of about 5% over the N4.7 trillion appropriated for 2012. This is made up of N380.02 billion for Statutory Transfers, N591.76 billion for Debt Service, N2.41 trillion for Recurrent (Non-Debt) Expenditure and N1.54 trillion for Capital Expenditure.

51. Based on the above, the fiscal deficit is projected to improve to about 2.17% of GDP in the 2013 Budget compared to 2.85% in 2012. This is well within the threshold stipulated in the Fiscal Responsibility Act, 2007 and clearly highlights our commitment to fiscal prudence. We are determined to further rein in domestic borrowing, and this way, ensure that our debt stock remains at a sustainable level.

52. Our focus on critical economic and social sectors continues. Some of these sectors are largely driven by private sector activity, while others require a great deal of public sector support. Some key allocations are as follows: Works – N183.5 billion; Power - N74.26 billion; Education – N426.53 billion; Health – N279.23 billion; Defence – N348.91 billion; Police – N319.65 billion; and Agriculture & Rural Development – N81.41 billion.

53. The power and gas sectors require a lot of investments to sustain our supply improvements. We shall therefore complement available resources with a proposed Infrastructure Euro Bond of about $1 billion in order to complete gas pipelines and other infrastructure investments.  We have also programmed other grants and soft credits critical to infrastructure and other sectors in our medium term external borrowing plan.





54. The SURE-P will continue with the expected resources of N180 billion in 2013 augmented by the projected 2012 unspent balances bringing the total to about N273.5 billion. We hope to make further progress in the programme, providing additional infrastructure investments and social safety net schemes for Nigerians. I am pleased to also lay before this esteemed Assembly, the 2013 Budget for the SURE-P.

Fiscal Policy
55. To promote Nigerian agriculture and industry, we will continue to implement supportive fiscal measures for some priority areas. You will recall that in my 2012 Budget speech, I announced fiscal measures on rice, cassava, wheat, and machinery for the agriculture and power sectors. In this regard, I am pleased to announce the following additional measures which will be effective from 1st January 2013:

a. Sugar: Machinery and spare parts imported for local sugar manufacturing industries will now attract 0% duty; there will also be a 5-year tax holiday for “sugarcane to sugar” value chain investors. Furthermore, import duty and levy on raw sugar will be 10% and 50% respectively, while refined sugar will attract 20% duty and 60% levy;

b. Rice: A 10% import duty and 100% levy will be applied to both brown and polished rice;

c. Aircraft: All commercial aircraft and aircraft spare parts imported for use in Nigeria will now attract 0% duty and 0% VAT. This will appreciably improve safety in our skies as newer fleet and less onerous maintenance will prevail;



d. Solid Minerals: Machinery and equipment imported for use in the solid minerals sector will now attract 0% import duty and 0% VAT; and

e. Public Mass Transit: In order to encourage the production of mass transit vehicles in Nigeria, duty on Completely Knocked Down components (CKD) for mass transit buses of at least 40-seater capacity, will now be 0%, down from 5%. Government is desirous of supporting green growth and, in this regard, will explore options for providing incentives for energy efficient vehicles from the 2014 fiscal year.


Gender Empowerment
56. This administration is gender friendly and has worked to improve the position of women in society and empower them economically. Nevertheless, to further integrate women in the various sectors, we have developed an innovative approach to mainstreaming gender issues starting with 5 pilot ministries – Agriculture, Health, Communication Technology, Water Resources and Works. These ministries are signing MOUs with the Ministry of Women Affairs to deliver on specific services for women.

a. The Ministry of Agriculture, for example, will work with the Ministry of Communication Technology to ensure that 5 million women farmers and agricultural entrepreneurs receive mobile phones to be able to access information on agro-inputs through an e-wallet scheme.


b. The Ministry of Health, in addition to scaling up its ongoing “Save a Million Lives” initiative, plans to give back health and hope to one-third of the pool of young girls and women who have been waiting a long time for V.V.F repairs through surgery and economic rehabilitation. In addition, we are up-scaling routine immunization.

c. For 2013, the Ministry of Works plans to increase the number of women that are employed in public works programmes as contractors, workers and project evaluators, setting itself a target of 35% for women in FERMA rehabilitation work. In every geopolitical zone, at least 3 roads leading to areas where women’s socio-economic activities are concentrated, will be prioritised and completed.

57. To support these activities, we have set aside the sum of N3 billion to be disbursed to participating MDAs as incentives for them to deliver on these targets. Our focus on empowering women is part of our agenda for improving the country’s human development indicators. In this regard, we shall not relent in our efforts to improve access and quality in our health and education sectors.


Sports
58. The performance of our sportsmen and women continues to strike an important chord for all Nigerians across the country. We want to take our sports to great heights again. We all recall our disappointment with our performance in the recent Summer Olympics games in London. At the same time, we were very delighted with the success of our Paralympics athletes.


59. My Administration is committed to addressing the challenges faced by our sports men and women. Later this month, I will be hosting a Presidential retreat on sports in order to strategise on ways to support our sports sector to achieve greater heights.


CONCLUSION
60. Mr. Senate President, Mr. Speaker, Distinguished and Honourable Members of this esteemed Assembly, Fellow Nigerians, the Budget Proposal I lay before you today represents our continued drive for real and sustainable growth for the wellbeing of Nigerians.

61. It is a budget that gives priority to our concerns for security, infrastructure, food security and human development sectors. It is a Budget that introduces a series of innovative features. This Budget is a push in the right direction borne out of our well thought-out and articulated developmental policies.

62. This is a budget for every Nigerian. It belongs to the farmer, the investor, the entrepreneur, the youth and the elderly. Yes, we have challenges, but also incredible opportunities. Ours is the task of transforming these opportunities into real, tangible outcomes which all our people can experience and call their own. We need the cooperation of everyone to make it work, to grow the economy, and to create jobs for our people. I continue to call on all Nigerians to act. Making Nigeria work begins with you and me.

63. Finally, I must restate my appreciation of the contributions and cooperation of the Legislature in discharging our collective responsibility to build the nation of our dreams.


64. I look forward to an expeditious consideration and passage of this Proposal, as we strive to guarantee positive socio-economic transformation for the benefit of our people.

65. May God bless the Federal Republic of Nigeria.

66. I thank you.

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Research : The bigger the penis size, the better

A medical study has confirmed every unendowed man’s worst nightmare: women really do think bigger is better when it comes down to what’s in your pants.

Well, that’s if we’re talking about vaginal orgasms achieved through penetrative sex, and not clitoral orgasms, which “the experts” like to argue are two totally different things, natch.

The findings, published in The Journal of Sexual Medicine, saw 323 women at a Scottish university asked to recall their sexual activity within the last month.

They were asked about penile-vaginal intercourse, vaginal orgasm and clitoral orgasm and whether penis length influenced their ability to orgasm.

Of these, 160 women had experienced vaginal-only orgasms and had had enough sexual partners to compare size experiences.

33.8 per cent of that figure claimed to prefer bigger-than-average penises, 60 per cent said size did not matter to them, and 6.3 per cent said they preferred shorter appendages.

Overall the women who reported the highest number of vaginal orgasms during the previous 30 days tended to say they preferred longer penises, the findings revealed.

Researchers found penis size was however not related to the frequency of clitoral orgasm.

“Male anxiety about penis size may not reflect internalised, culturally arbitrary masculine stereotypes, but an accurate appreciation that size matters to many women — just as men feel legitimate anxiety when they enter the mating market about their intelligence, personality traits, sense of humor, social status, height, wealth, and other traits known to be favored by women across cultures,” study researcher Stuart Brody, a psychologist at the University of the West of Scotland, told LiveScience.
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The Emerging Doctrine of the United States

By George Friedman
Over the past weekend, rumors began to emerge that the Syrian opposition would allow elements of the al Assad regime to remain in Syria and participate in the new government. Rumors have become Syria's prime export, and as such they should not be taken too seriously. Nevertheless, what is happening in Syria is significant for a new foreign doctrine emerging in the United States -- a doctrine in which the United States does not take primary responsibility for events, but which allows regional crises to play out until a new regional balance is reached. Whether a good or bad policy -- and that is partly what the U.S. presidential race is about -- it is real, and it flows from lessons learned.
Threats against the United States are many and complex, but Washington's main priority is ensuring that none of those threats challenge its fundamental interests. Somewhat simplistically, this boils down to mitigating threats against U.S. control of the seas by preventing the emergence of a Eurasian power able to marshal resources toward that end. It also includes preventing the development of a substantial intercontinental nuclear capability that could threaten the United States if a country is undeterred by U.S. military power for whatever reason. There are obviously other interests, but certainly these interests are fundamental.
Therefore, U.S. interest in what is happening in the Western Pacific is understandable. But even there, the United States is, at least for now, allowing regional forces to engage each other in a struggle that has not yet affected the area's balance of power. U.S. allies and proxies, including the Philippines, Vietnam and Japan, have been playing chess in the region's seas without a direct imposition of U.S. naval power -- even though such a prospect appears possible.
Lessons Learned
The roots of this policy lie in Iraq. Iran and Iraq are historical rivals; they fought an extended war in the 1980s with massive casualties. A balance of power existed between the two that neither was comfortable with but that neither could overcome. They contained each other with minimal external involvement.
The U.S. intervention in Iraq had many causes but one overwhelming consequence: In destroying Saddam Hussein's regime, a regime that was at least as monstrous as Moammar Gadhafi's or Bashar al Assad's, the United States destroyed the regional balance of power with Iran. The United States also miscalculated the consequences of the invasion and faced substantial resistance. When the United States calculated that withdrawal was the most prudent course -- a decision made during the Bush administration and continued by the Obama administration -- Iran consequently gained power and a greater sense of security. Perhaps such outcomes should have been expected, but since a forced withdrawal was unexpected, the consequences didn't clearly follow and warnings went unheeded.
If Iraq was the major and critical lesson on the consequences of intervention, Libya was the smaller and less significant lesson that drove it home. The United States did not want to get involved in Libya. Following the logic of the new policy, Libya did not represent a threat to U.S. interests. It was the Europeans, particularly the French, who argued that the human rights threats posed by the Gadhafi regime had to be countered and that those threats could quickly and efficiently be countered from the air. Initially, the U.S. position was that France and its allies were free to involve themselves, but the United States did not wish to intervene.
This rapidly shifted as the Europeans mounted an air campaign. They found that the Gadhafi regime did not collapse merely because French aircraft entered Libyan airspace. They also found that the campaign was going to be longer and more difficult than they anticipated. At this point committed to maintaining its coalition with the Europeans, the United States found itself in the position of either breaking with its coalition or participating in the air campaign. It chose the latter, seeing the commitment as minimal and supporting the alliance as a prior consideration.
Libya and Iraq taught us two lessons. The first was that campaigns designed to topple brutal dictators do not necessarily yield better regimes. Instead of the brutality of tyrants, the brutality of chaos and smaller tyrants emerged. The second lesson, well learned in Iraq, is that the world does not necessarily admire interventions for the sake of human rights. The United States also learned that the world's position can shift with startling rapidity from demanding U.S. action to condemning U.S. action. Moreover, Washington discovered that intervention can unleash virulently anti-American forces that will kill U.S. diplomats. Once the United States enters the campaign, however reluctantly and in however marginal a role, it will be the United States that will be held accountable by much of the world -- certainly by the inhabitants of the country experiencing the intervention. As in Iraq, on a vastly smaller scale, intervention carries with it unexpected consequences.
These lessons have informed U.S. policy toward Syria, which affects only some U.S. interests. However, any U.S. intervention in Syria would constitute both an effort and a risk disproportionate to those interests. Particularly after Libya, the French and other Europeans realized that their own ability to intervene in Syria was insufficient without the Americans, so they declined to intervene. Of course, this predated the killing of U.S. diplomats in Benghazi, Libya, but it did not predate the fact that the intervention in Libya surprised planners by its length and by the difficulty of creating a successor regime less brutal than the one it replaced. The United States was not prepared to intervene with conventional military force.
That is not to say the United States did not have an interest in Syria. Specifically, Washington did not want Syria to become an Iranian puppet that would allow Tehran's influence to stretch through Iraq to the Mediterranean. The United States had been content with the Syrian regime while it was simply a partner of Iran rather than Iran's subordinate. However, the United States foresaw Syria as a subordinate of Iran if the al Assad regime survived. The United States wanted Iran blocked, and that meant the displacement of the al Assad regime. It did not mean Washington wanted to intervene militarily, except possibly through aid and training potentially delivered by U.S. special operations forces -- a lighter intervention than others advocated.
Essential Interests
The U.S. solution is instructive of the emerging doctrine. First, the United States accepted that al Assad, like Saddam Hussein and Gadhafi, was a tyrant. But it did not accept the idea that al Assad's fall would create a morally superior regime. In any event, it expected the internal forces in Syria to deal with al Assad and was prepared to allow this to play out. Second, the United States expected regional powers to address the Syrian question if they wished. This meant primarily Turkey and to a lesser degree Saudi Arabia. From the American point of view, the Turks and Saudis had an even greater interest in circumscribing an Iranian sphere of influence, and they had far greater levers to determine the outcome in Syria. Israel is, of course, a regional power, but it was in no position to intervene: The Israelis lacked the power to impose a solution, they could not occupy Syria, and Israeli support for any Syrian faction would delegitimize that faction immediately. Any intervention would have to be regional and driven by each participant's national interests.
The Turks realized that their own national interest, while certainly affected by Syria, did not require a major military intervention, which would have been difficult to execute and which would have had an unknown outcome. The Saudis and Qataris, never prepared to intervene directly, did what they could covertly, using money, arms and religiously motivated fighters to influence events. But no country was prepared to risk too much to shape events in Syria. They were prepared to use indirect power rather than conventional military force. As a result, the conflict remains unresolved.
This has forced both the Syrian regime and the rebels to recognize the unlikelihood of outright military victory. Iran's support for the regime and the various sources of support for the Syrian opposition have proved indecisive. Rumors of political compromise are emerging accordingly.
We see this doctrine at work in Iran as well. Tehran is developing nuclear weapons, which may threaten Israel. At the same time, the United States is not prepared to engage in a war with Iran, nor is it prepared to underwrite the Israeli attack with added military support. It is using an inefficient means of pressure -- sanctions -- which appears to have had some effect with the rapid depreciation of the Iranian currency. But the United States is not looking to resolve the Iranian issue, nor is it prepared to take primary responsibility for it unless Iran becomes a threat to fundamental U.S. interests. It is content to let events unfold and act only when there is no other choice.
Under the emerging doctrine, the absence of an overwhelming American interest means that the fate of a country like Syria is in the hands of the Syrian people or neighboring countries. The United States is unwilling to take on the cost and calumny of trying to solve the problem. It is less a form of isolationism than a recognition of the limits of power and interest. Not everything that happens in the world requires or justifies American intervention.
If maintained, this doctrine will force the world to reconsider many things. On a recent trip in Europe and the Caucasus, I was constantly asked what the United States would do on various issues. I responded by saying it would do remarkably little and that it was up to them to act. This caused interesting consternation. Many who condemn U.S. hegemony also seem to demand it. There is a shift under way that they have not yet noticed -- except for an absence that they regard as an American failure. My attempt to explain it as the new normal did not always work.
Given that there is a U.S. presidential election under way, this doctrine, which has quietly emerged under Obama, appears to conflict with the views of Mitt Romney, a point I made in a previous article. My core argument on foreign policy is that reality, not presidents or policy papers, makes foreign policy. The United States has entered a period in which it must move from military domination to more subtle manipulation, and more important, allow events to take their course. This is a maturation of U.S. foreign policy, not a degradation. Most important, it is happening out of impersonal forces that will shape whoever wins the U.S. presidential election and whatever he might want. Whether he wishes to increase U.S. assertiveness out of national interest, or to protect human rights, the United States is changing the model by which it operates. Overextended, it is redesigning its operating system to focus on the essentials and accept that much of the world, unessential to the United States, will be free to evolve as it will.
This does not mean that the United States will disengage from world affairs. It controls the world's oceans and generates almost a quarter of the world's gross domestic product. While disengagement is impossible, controlled engagement, based on a realistic understanding of the national interest, is possible.
This will upset the international system, especially U.S. allies. It will also create stress in the United States both from the political left, which wants a humanitarian foreign policy, and the political right, which defines the national interest broadly. But the constraints of the past decade weigh heavily on the United States and therefore will change the way the world works.
The important point is that no one decided this new doctrine. It is emerging from the reality the United States faces. That is how powerful doctrines emerge. They manifest themselves first and are announced when everyone realizes that that is how things work.
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